Snap Theory

Kellen Moore

NO · 2026 fourth downs through week 10

8thof 32 NFL coaches
61fourth downs graded
13differ from the model
1.42%win chance given up per game
21%go for it
36%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 1 vs DET: 4th & 4 at the DET 10, Q4 7:45, down 7. Moore kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (4.1% win chance given up).
  2. Week 2 vs BAL: 4th & 3 at the BAL 5, Q2 3:49, down 7. Moore kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.4% win chance given up).
  3. Week 2 vs BAL: 4th & 4 at the BAL 33, Q3 11:05, down 8. Moore kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.7% win chance given up).
  4. Week 1 vs DET: 4th & 2 at their own 43, Q1 10:15, tied. Moore punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.6% win chance given up).
  5. Week 2 vs BAL: 4th & 6 at the BAL 43, Q2 13:38, down 7. Moore punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.3% win chance given up).
Play Kellen Moore’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards