Snap Theory

Kevin O'Connell

MIN · 2026 fourth downs through week 10

22ndof 32 NFL coaches
62fourth downs graded
13differ from the model
2.15%win chance given up per game
11%go for it
29%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 2 vs CHI: 4th & 1 at their own 21, Q4 13:04, up 3. O'Connell punted; the model’s call was to go for it (5.0% win chance given up).
  2. Week 9 vs BUF: 4th & 1 at the BUF 25, Q2 4:06, down 3. O'Connell kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.0% win chance given up).
  3. Week 5 vs NO: 4th & 2 at their own 40, Q2 6:15, down 4. O'Connell punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.9% win chance given up).
  4. Week 2 vs CHI: 4th & 3 at their own 42, Q1 0:11, tied. O'Connell punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.3% win chance given up).
  5. Week 1 vs GB: 4th & 5 at the GB 20, Q1 1:42, down 9. O'Connell kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.3% win chance given up).
Play Kevin O'Connell’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards