Snap Theory

Kevin Stefanski

ATL · 2026 fourth downs through week 10

4thof 32 NFL coaches
59fourth downs graded
14differ from the model
1.16%win chance given up per game
20%go for it
31%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 8 vs TB: 4th & 1 at their own 16, Q3 11:24, down 9. Stefanski punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.9% win chance given up).
  2. Week 1 vs PIT: 4th & 10 at the PIT 44, Q3 6:52, down 6. Stefanski punted; the model’s call was to kick a field goal (1.2% win chance given up).
  3. Week 1 vs PIT: 4th & 1 at the PIT 24, Q4 10:39, down 10. Stefanski kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.1% win chance given up).
  4. Week 5 vs BAL: 4th & goal at the BAL 5, Q3 9:55, up 5. Stefanski kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.0% win chance given up).
  5. Week 8 vs TB: 4th & 6 at the TB 32, Q2 12:39, down 6. Stefanski went for it; the model’s call was to kick a field goal (0.9% win chance given up).
Play Kevin Stefanski’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards