Snap Theory

Klint Kubiak

LV · 2026 fourth downs through week 10

26thof 32 NFL coaches
56fourth downs graded
11differ from the model
2.43%win chance given up per game
23%go for it
39%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 8 vs NYJ: 4th & 5 at the NYJ 35, Q4 0:31, up 2. Kubiak kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to punt (7.3% win chance given up).
  2. Week 2 vs LAC: 4th & 1 at their own 26, Q4 6:54, up 3. Kubiak punted; the model’s call was to go for it (5.3% win chance given up).
  3. Week 6 vs BUF: 4th & goal at the BUF 4, Q4 13:35, down 10. Kubiak kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (3.3% win chance given up).
  4. Week 4 vs KC: 4th & 2 at the KC 30, Q4 4:58, down 1. Kubiak kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (3.0% win chance given up).
  5. Week 5 vs NE: 4th & 15 at the NE 40, Q2 5:20, down 7. Kubiak punted; the model’s call was to kick a field goal (0.9% win chance given up).
Play Klint Kubiak’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards