Snap Theory

Kyle Shanahan

SF · 2026 fourth downs through week 10

21stof 32 NFL coaches
36fourth downs graded
9differ from the model
2.10%win chance given up per game
25%go for it
47%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 1 vs LA: 4th & goal at the LA 2, Q1 6:17, tied. Shanahan kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (3.6% win chance given up).
  2. Week 4 vs DEN: 4th & 1 at their own 21, Q2 10:36, down 3. Shanahan punted; the model’s call was to go for it (3.2% win chance given up).
  3. Week 5 vs SEA: 4th & 1 at their own 38, Q1 14:04, tied. Shanahan punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.6% win chance given up).
  4. Week 5 vs SEA: 4th & 2 at the SEA 25, Q4 2:00, tied. Shanahan kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.5% win chance given up).
  5. Week 1 vs LA: 4th & 2 at their own 25, Q1 2:01, up 3. Shanahan punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.4% win chance given up).
Play Kyle Shanahan’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards