Liam Coen

JAX · 2026 fourth downs through week 10

The costliest close calls

1. Week 6 vs HOU: 4th & 4 at the HOU 42, Q4 2:00, down 3. Coen kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (3.6% win chance given up).
2. Week 4 vs CIN: 4th & 10 at the CIN 46, Q4 11:53, up 6. Coen kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to punt (2.5% win chance given up).
3. Week 3 vs NE: 4th & 1 at their own 21, Q1 13:14, tied. Coen punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.6% win chance given up).
4. Week 2 vs DEN: 4th & goal at the DEN 5, Q3 9:05, up 7. Coen kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.0% win chance given up).
5. Week 4 vs CIN: 4th & 6 at the CIN 37, Q1 2:23, tied. Coen kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.6% win chance given up).

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards