Snap Theory

Matt LaFleur

GB · 2026 fourth downs through week 10

5thof 32 NFL coaches
64fourth downs graded
11differ from the model
1.21%win chance given up per game
20%go for it
38%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 7 vs DET: 4th & goal at the DET 3, Q1 10:26, tied. LaFleur kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.4% win chance given up).
  2. Week 4 vs TB: 4th & 2 at the TB 44, Q1 10:27, tied. LaFleur punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.1% win chance given up).
  3. Week 1 vs MIN: 4th & 3 at the MIN 49, Q2 8:28, up 9. LaFleur punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.3% win chance given up).
Play Matt LaFleur’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards