Snap Theory

Mike LaFleur

ARI · 2026 fourth downs through week 10

25thof 32 NFL coaches
70fourth downs graded
22differ from the model
2.39%win chance given up per game
19%go for it
44%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 1 vs LAC: 4th & 1 at their own 40, Q4 14:04, up 2. LaFleur punted; the model’s call was to go for it (4.8% win chance given up).
  2. Week 1 vs LAC: 4th & 3 at the LAC 9, Q2 6:54, tied. LaFleur kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.3% win chance given up).
  3. Week 6 vs LA: 4th & goal at the LA 3, Q2 0:49, down 3. LaFleur kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.8% win chance given up).
  4. Week 7 vs DEN: 4th & 2 at their own 43, Q2 2:13, down 7. LaFleur punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.4% win chance given up).
  5. Week 1 vs LAC: 4th & 2 at the LAC 30, Q4 2:37, up 9. LaFleur kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.1% win chance given up).
Play Mike LaFleur’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards