Mike Macdonald

SEA · 2026 fourth downs through week 10

The costliest close calls

1. Week 5 vs SF: 4th & 3 at the SF 25, Q3 9:00, down 8. Macdonald kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.3% win chance given up).
2. Week 9 vs ARI: 4th & 1 at their own 23, Q2 9:40, up 4. Macdonald punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.0% win chance given up).
3. Week 1 vs NE: 4th & 1 at their own 30, Q1 4:42, tied. Macdonald punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.6% win chance given up).
4. Week 8 vs CHI: 4th & 2 at their own 37, Q1 3:26, down 7. Macdonald punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.3% win chance given up).
5. Week 1 vs NE: 4th & 4 at their own 48, Q3 9:37, down 10. Macdonald punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.2% win chance given up).

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards