Snap Theory

Mike McCarthy

PIT · 2026 fourth downs through week 10

15thof 32 NFL coaches
58fourth downs graded
14differ from the model
1.74%win chance given up per game
12%go for it
24%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 6 vs TB: 4th & goal at the TB 1, Q4 1:23, tied. McCarthy kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (3.0% win chance given up).
  2. Week 8 vs CLE: 4th & goal at the CLE 2, Q2 14:08, up 7. McCarthy kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.7% win chance given up).
  3. Week 2 vs NE: 4th & 3 at their own 44, Q3 2:22, down 7. McCarthy punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.3% win chance given up).
  4. Week 6 vs TB: 4th & 2 at their own 32, Q2 13:15, down 10. McCarthy punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.7% win chance given up).
  5. Week 7 vs NO: 4th & 5 at the NO 10, Q1 10:54, tied. McCarthy kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.2% win chance given up).
Play Mike McCarthy’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards