Snap Theory

Mike Vrabel

NE · 2026 fourth downs through week 10

10thof 32 NFL coaches
53fourth downs graded
12differ from the model
1.44%win chance given up per game
23%go for it
43%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 4 vs BUF: 4th & 2 at their own 45, Q3 0:56, up 4. Vrabel punted; the model’s call was to go for it (3.2% win chance given up).
  2. Week 1 vs SEA: 4th & 3 at the SEA 47, Q2 0:57, up 7. Vrabel punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.1% win chance given up).
  3. Week 4 vs BUF: 4th & 4 at their own 42, Q4 6:45, up 1. Vrabel punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.5% win chance given up).
  4. Week 7 vs CHI: 4th & 7 at their own 46, Q4 6:28, down 6. Vrabel punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.3% win chance given up).
  5. Week 1 vs SEA: 4th & 2 at their own 40, Q1 1:28, tied. Vrabel punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.8% win chance given up).
Play Mike Vrabel’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards