Snap Theory

Nick Sirianni

PHI · 2026 fourth downs through week 10

3rdof 32 NFL coaches
66fourth downs graded
10differ from the model
0.83%win chance given up per game
15%go for it
26%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 7 vs DAL: 4th & 2 at their own 23, Q4 14:27, down 7. Sirianni punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.4% win chance given up).
  2. Week 1 vs WAS: 4th & 2 at their own 34, Q3 13:00, up 5. Sirianni punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.7% win chance given up).
  3. Week 8 vs WAS: 4th & 6 at the WAS 48, Q3 10:18, down 3. Sirianni punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.3% win chance given up).
Play Nick Sirianni’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards