Snap Theory

Robert Saleh

TEN · 2026 fourth downs through week 10

24thof 32 NFL coaches
53fourth downs graded
19differ from the model
2.26%win chance given up per game
13%go for it
40%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 7 vs CLE: 4th & 1 at their own 20, Q3 9:06, down 3. Saleh punted; the model’s call was to go for it (3.5% win chance given up).
  2. Week 6 vs IND: 4th & 5 at the IND 26, Q4 0:47, up 3. Saleh kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (3.5% win chance given up).
  3. Week 1 vs NYJ: 4th & 3 at the NYJ 49, Q2 1:18, down 7. Saleh punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.1% win chance given up).
  4. Week 6 vs IND: 4th & 1 at their own 15, Q2 15:00, tied. Saleh punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.1% win chance given up).
  5. Week 6 vs IND: 4th & 1 at their own 43, Q2 8:49, down 7. Saleh punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.6% win chance given up).
Play Robert Saleh’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards