Sean McVay

LA · 2026 fourth downs through week 10

The costliest close calls

1. Week 9 vs WAS: 4th & goal at the WAS 2, Q2 0:05, down 7. McVay kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.6% win chance given up).
2. Week 8 vs LAC: 4th & 2 at the LAC 11, Q1 5:45, tied. McVay kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.9% win chance given up).
3. Week 1 vs SF: 4th & 1 at their own 26, Q1 13:38, tied. McVay punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.8% win chance given up).
4. Week 8 vs LAC: 4th & 2 at their own 36, Q2 8:34, down 3. McVay punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.5% win chance given up).
5. Week 4 vs PHI: 4th & 8 at the PHI 36, Q4 14:16, down 10. McVay went for it; the model’s call was to kick a field goal (1.2% win chance given up).

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards