Snap Theory

Sean Payton

DEN · 2026 fourth downs through week 10

32ndof 32 NFL coaches
67fourth downs graded
26differ from the model
4.54%win chance given up per game
6%go for it
45%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 5 vs LAC: 4th & goal at the LAC 1, Q4 5:10, tied. Payton kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (5.5% win chance given up).
  2. Week 2 vs JAX: 4th & goal at the JAX 2, Q2 7:03, down 7. Payton kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (5.1% win chance given up).
  3. Week 3 vs LA: 4th & 2 at their own 38, Q4 7:10, down 3. Payton punted; the model’s call was to go for it (4.1% win chance given up).
  4. Week 4 vs SF: 4th & 2 at the SF 22, Q4 14:12, down 7. Payton kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (4.1% win chance given up).
  5. Week 4 vs SF: 4th & 2 at their own 45, Q3 10:52, tied. Payton punted; the model’s call was to go for it (3.3% win chance given up).
Play Sean Payton’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards