Snap Theory

Shane Steichen

IND · 2026 fourth downs through week 10

19thof 32 NFL coaches
66fourth downs graded
15differ from the model
2.00%win chance given up per game
21%go for it
44%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 5 vs PIT: 4th & goal at the PIT 4, Q3 10:25, down 4. Steichen kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (3.2% win chance given up).
  2. Week 9 vs DAL: 4th & 4 at the DAL 41, Q4 6:01, down 3. Steichen kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (3.2% win chance given up).
  3. Week 9 vs DAL: 4th & 1 at their own 20, Q2 6:02, down 3. Steichen punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.4% win chance given up).
  4. Week 4 vs WAS: 4th & 1 at their own 37, Q1 0:27, down 6. Steichen punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.4% win chance given up).
  5. Week 4 vs WAS: 4th & 2 at the WAS 34, Q3 7:07, up 4. Steichen kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.7% win chance given up).
Play Shane Steichen’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards