Todd Bowles

TB · 2026 fourth downs through week 10

The costliest close calls

1. Week 4 vs GB: 4th & 11 at the GB 47, Q4 1:34, down 3. Bowles went for it; the model’s call was to kick a field goal (8.1% win chance given up).
2. Week 7 vs CAR: 4th & goal at the CAR 4, Q2 14:15, up 7. Bowles kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.7% win chance given up).
3. Week 9 vs CHI: 4th & 2 at their own 34, Q3 2:02, down 11. Bowles punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.4% win chance given up).
4. Week 2 vs CLE: 4th & 2 at the CLE 13, Q4 10:01, tied. Bowles kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.2% win chance given up).
5. Week 3 vs MIN: 4th & 2 at their own 33, Q1 1:16, down 3. Bowles punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.9% win chance given up).

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards