Snap Theory

Todd Monken

CLE · 2026 fourth downs through week 10

16thof 32 NFL coaches
76fourth downs graded
19differ from the model
1.82%win chance given up per game
16%go for it
32%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 4 vs PIT: 4th & 1 at their own 25, Q1 12:59, tied. Monken punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.9% win chance given up).
  2. Week 9 vs NO: 4th & 2 at their own 45, Q1 4:26, down 3. Monken punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.3% win chance given up).
  3. Week 6 vs BAL: 4th & 4 at their own 45, Q4 12:51, down 7. Monken punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.1% win chance given up).
  4. Week 9 vs NO: 4th & 2 at the NO 23, Q2 10:34, down 3. Monken kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.1% win chance given up).
  5. Week 3 vs CAR: 4th & 3 at their own 42, Q1 8:41, tied. Monken punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.2% win chance given up).
Play Todd Monken’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards