Snap Theory

Zac Taylor

CIN · 2026 fourth downs through week 10

7thof 32 NFL coaches
35fourth downs graded
9differ from the model
1.38%win chance given up per game
11%go for it
34%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 3 vs PIT: 4th & 2 at their own 49, Q4 7:46, tied. Taylor punted; the model’s call was to go for it (3.6% win chance given up).
  2. Week 4 vs JAX: 4th & 6 at the JAX 10, Q2 10:07, down 3. Taylor kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.2% win chance given up).
  3. Week 2 vs HOU: 4th & 2 at the HOU 33, Q3 12:32, up 4. Taylor kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.6% win chance given up).
  4. Week 7 vs BAL: 4th & 3 at their own 46, Q2 7:06, down 10. Taylor punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.2% win chance given up).
  5. Week 3 vs PIT: 4th & 3 at their own 49, Q2 4:40, down 7. Taylor punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.8% win chance given up).
Play Zac Taylor’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards